Ten problems to the world in the next years.

Among the concerns about the progress of the global economy, unemployment and poverty in the battered Europe, civil war in Syria, the transition in China and uncertainty about the political future in Venezuela, the world is preparing for another turbulent year.


Paris.-The world did not end on December 21, but, as every time he was on the verge of a new era, stumbling continue at least another year.
The economy shows few signs of life and therefore growth will be mediocre. Unemployment and poverty will increase in Europe, causing great social tension and a direct impact on the rest of the planet. Still, the euro will survive and no country will leave the euro. The sustained increase in the price of fossil fuels will not help. But 2013 will not be the year of alternative energy sources, but coal and shale gas, by which the United States will soon cease to depend on Saudi oil.
The planet's temperature is one of the highest since the early twentieth century. Agriculture will suffer the consequences and polar ice, particularly Antarctic continue to melt with giant strides.
In this bleak picture, the good news is that 2013 will be a good year for Latin America, even with the uncertainty about the future of Venezuela by Hugo Chavez's disease. As for the wars, the conflict in Syria will give way to a new internal order, while elections in Iran will be an opportunity for Tehran and Washington begin to talk.
Economy globalEL OUTLOOK NOT INVITE TO ENCOURAGE AN EXPECTED OUT OF THE CRISIS
Useless illusions: six years after the start of the crisis, the global economic situation remains dramatic. These large engines business which were Europe, USA, Japan and China will almost paralyzed, with anemic growth figures. The best example is Europe. The GDP of the 17 eurozone countries should grow less than 0.5% in 2013. Germany and France could overcome these figures laboriously, but Greece will remain in recession for the sixth consecutive year, while the economic performance of Spain and Portugal worse for the fourth time in five years.
As before, the European leaders have few solutions and survive the difficulties for countries of the North and the South to overcome their difficulties. The euro will survive, but will not return to good health in the coming months. United States will be better, but its economy will grow by just over 2%.
Ill winds from Europe and the United States will prevent developing countries progress. Thanks to the expansion of consumption in emerging markets, this sector will grow by about 6%. But few arrogant countries continue to record the figures to which they were accustomed: Brazil's GDP will increase by 4% and India 6.5%. China would grow 8.6%. While the second largest economy recorded positive that figure, thanks to its monetary policy and public investment programs regionally, over the months will start to appear some cracks.
EuropeaLA crisis CREDIBILITY OF POLITICAL WILL FALLING TO THE RHYTHM OF THE ECONOMY
Several major elections could change the course of European integration in 2013. With a stagnant economy, rising unemployment and growing distrust in the political class, the end of the tunnel still seems distant. Italy government elected in February. While Mario Monti hopes to leverage its popularity leading a centrist coalition to continue running the country, polls give the advantage to the coalition led by the Democratic Party (PD) center-left, and Silvio Berlusconi hanging around a new application . This result would confirm the trend since the euro crisis began. Since then, the wrath of the Europeans, tired of adjustments, punished their governments-left-right-, denying reelection. So it was in Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain, Britain, the Netherlands, Finland and France.
Tension in the Middle orient "ARAB SPRING" WITH ALL LIGHTS AND SHADOWS MAY MOVE TO OTHER COUNTRIES
The hopes raised by the "Arab Spring" will remain outstanding. Islamist leaders who replaced almost all dictatorships in Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen and Libya do not respond precisely to the democratic demands of their populations. But at least, dictatorships strong regimes fell and others are under intense pressure, as in Bahrain and Syria. On the latter, in the midst of a fierce civil war, the big question is whether Bashar al-Assad will go into exile, he will die in his palace or resist the rebellion against him. And we have to pay attention to Israel and Iran, which will hold elections in January and June, respectively. The results may influence beyond the borders, and in the case of Israel, in relations with the Palestinians.
The march of America latinaESPERA GROWTH ABOVE AVERAGE, BUT DEPENDS ON CHINA
While the rest of the world will still mired, Latin America is the only region to progress, although not as much as it should. The growth of solid announces region: between 3% and 4%. After a difficult year, Brazil should resume economic expansion, while Peru, Chile and Colombia recorded growth above the regional average. In the case of exporting countries, the eyes of the region will be on the evolution of China, to be an immediate impact on the Latin American commodity prices. Moreover, eyes will be on current political and Venezuela. Assume Chavez? Its new mandate January 10? Would it be possible without Chavez Chavez?
The transition ChinaXI GROWING JINPING MUST FIGHT CORRUPTION
After succeed Hu Jintao as supreme leader, Xi Jinping in March will assume his duties as president of China. If appearance is a peaceful transition, many challenges await the new president. Xi must above all ensure social and political stability in a country whose economy is suffering the impact of the crisis in the developed world. Internally, your main concern will be to limit the widespread corruption that blight the second economy in the world, creating a deep unease in the population. A study by the Pew Global Attitudes Project, half of the population believes official corruption as a "huge problem."
The evolution of the United UnidosLA PRIORITY WILL OVERCOME THE "FINANCIAL ABYSS" AND SUBJECT TO A BUDGET ADJUSTMENT
The task of overcoming the "tax gap" will surely be in the hands of the new Congress, which could reduce some taxes and increasing public debt ceiling. The real shock will come with budget adjustment policy. In the social field, the main battle that awaits Barack Obama will be the Republican opposition demands to cut its program of universal health care. On another level, the United States will exceed 315 million people. Among births, deaths and immigration, the population increases at the rate of one resident every 17 seconds.
More débilesLAS Leadership ELECTIONS AND NOT ENOUGH FOR DEMOCRATIC Legitimacy
We will have to get used to the idea that in the developed world, the leaders will become weaker. The good news is that the reason for the irreversible process is a growing democracy and more sophisticated, where citizens assert their right to speak and to be consulted on an ongoing basis. "Those who believe that the mere verdict of the polls is a guarantee of legitimacy to govern, they are wrong. In developed democracies, the rulers must be subject to popular every day," the French philosopher Pierre de Rosanvallon.
The rise of "cyberwarfare" INCREASE THE COMPUTER ATTACKS AGAINST COMPANIES AND INSTITUTIONS
He became so common that experts not even included in the forecasts outstanding year. "All the armed forces now have special bodies working to protect the IT infrastructure of their countries and have means of defense against potential attacks," explains Ralf Benzmüller, G Data Security Labs But talk of "cyberwar" exaggeration : rather it is "cyber espionage". What 2013 will increase attacks against companies and institutions, addressing structures smaller and less protected.
A new eraHABRÁ CHANGES IN ENERGY SOURCES AND MORE CIVIL LIBERTIES
Next year will accelerate revolutionary changes in the planet, heralds of a new era. Among them, the energy transition in the United States thanks to gas and oil shale, which will transform it into the world's largest producer and international geopolitics change. Or the end of the African curse: the continent of famine, wars and dictatorships is becoming one of the most dynamic areas for growth. In addition, rapid advances in biotechnology, coupled with the computing power of today's computers, are radically changing medicine.
The test is a human genome to everyone just $ 1,000, over the Internet. In the United States, Latin America and Europe, the debate on the decriminalization of marijuana intensifies. The gay marriage and feminism are generalized states: a wave seize libertarian think much of the world.
More or less government? THIS IS A DISCUSSION THAT GOES BEYOND THE DEBATE BETWEEN LEFT AND RIGHT
In other words: will there be more or less social solidarity? In a world in crisis, the debate will acquire different shades of each side of the Atlantic. In the United States, the battle over the prospect of lower taxes for everyone, including the rich-or escalate to higher revenues, will mark the next 12 months.
In Europe, the confrontation will manifest around the dilemma so far divided the North and South of the continent: more adjustments, less welfare state, more years of work and less social security? Or just the opposite? The auction promises to be historic, even blurring the traditional division between right and left. Compared to the last half of the twentieth century, the challenge is now for policymakers cyclopean. Almost squaring the circle.